eagL / weather markets

How weather prediction markets actually settle

A weather contract does not settle on the weather. It settles on one instrument reading at one airport, published in a format written for pilots. Trading these markets without reading that instrument is guessing, so eagL puts the instrument on screen.

How settlement actually works

Kalshi's temperature contracts settle on the official observation at a named airport station, typically the daily high recorded in its climate report. The number that matters is the one the station publishes, not the city forecast on your phone. Those forecasts can differ from the settlement station by several degrees, and the market prices the station.

METAR and TAF, decoded

Stations publish current conditions as METAR and short-term forecasts as TAF, the aviation formats. eagL pulls both for all 25 US airports these contracts settle on and shows them beside the market, decoded, with every reading stamped with its age. A stale observation is a different fact from a fresh one, and the stamp keeps you from confusing them.

Two forecasters, blended and disagreeing

Behind the observations, eagL blends NWS and Open-Meteo forecasts three to one. The blend is the estimate; the disagreement between the two sources sets the confidence band. When two independent forecasters split by four degrees, that split is information, and eagL shows it instead of averaging it away.

What eagL deliberately does not do here

eagL does not price weather contracts. Crypto strikes get a model because the underlying trades continuously and settlement is arithmetic, per the crypto markets page. A settlement-grade weather model is a harder claim than a $499 tool should make, so the weather terminal is exactly that: the settlement data, organized for the decision, with the pricing left to you. Weather markets still get the standard treatment everywhere else in the app: depth, fees and cross-venue matching per the methodology.