Control
Nothing fires without you
Read-only and paper-first out of the box. Live placement sits behind a kill switch you have to reach for. Polymarket execution does not exist here at all.
off by default
ConnectingCoinbase
BTC——
ETH——
SOL——
XRP——
Public exchange feed
A quant’s
eagle-eye view.
Prediction-market quantitative analytics for Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase.
Prediction markets get stressful fast: four venues, four fee schedules, and prices that move while you do the arithmetic. eagL is the dashboard that makes sense of them. Your own quantitative analyst, resident on your Mac, pricing crypto strikes from stored minute candles and charging every candidate the venue's own fee formula before you read a number.
eagL for Apple Silicon
macOS 11+Less than half what competitors chargePotential savings: $1,000s
$499one-time payment
- Subscription terminals
- about $1,800 a year
- Lifetime seats elsewhere
- about $1,600
- v1 updates + improvements
- Lifetime
- v2 Pro Edition at release
- 20% off*
- Subscription
- None
or
Cards, Link, PayPal and Amazon Pay are at checkout too
- 1Pay
- 2Download
- 3Running in a minute
Stripe-securedInstant downloadYours foreverLifetime updates20% off v2 Pro Edition
Requires an Apple Silicon Mac on macOS 11 or later. All sales are final; orders@eagl-app.com assists with failed downloads, activation files, and installation.
*20% off the v2 Pro Edition: email your licence confirmation to eaglapp@proton.me when v2 ships.
eagL / labs / crypto
Fees come out firstevery number is net of that venue's own schedule
Both legs, replayedan edge only counts if it survives 30 minutes of live quotes
Tested on data it never sawyou see how far the edge decays, not the best run
Nothing leaves your Macno account, no upload
Recorded in the app
Execution deck.
Two screen recordings of the shipping build reading live venue data. Nothing here is staged or mocked up.
eagL / labs / weather
The observation that settles the contract.
Weather markets pay out on airport observations, not forecasts. METAR and TAF sit beside a three-to-one NWS and Open-Meteo blend, and where those two models disagree the forecast is marked low confidence instead of averaged quietly.
Watch the age counters. Stale data is labelled, not hidden.
25 cities · METAR + TAF
Custody
Your keys never leave the Mac
Venue credentials live in your keychain and speak to a sidecar over loopback. There is no eagL account, so there is nothing of yours for anyone to lose.
loopback only
Record
Every rejection is kept
Paper fills, diagnostics, discarded candidates and validation runs go to disk and stay there. Six months from now you can still ask why, and get an answer.
no upload · no scoring
Pricing
The price you see is the price you'd get
Most tools price a trade at the best quote on screen. eagL walks the whole order book, charges the venue's real fees at your actual fill price, and takes every cost out before a number reaches you. A trade that only works before fees never gets to look like an opportunity. It shows up as a rejection, with the math attached.
VWAP · size · venue cost
Delivery
Buy it, own it, run it on a plane
A signed licence file the app checks by itself. Nothing to create an account for, nothing to call home to, nothing that can be switched off from elsewhere.
signed licence · offline
Measured, not claimed
Market pulse.
Four numbers the app produces on your Mac. All four are visible in the recordings above.
4 venues
One overview, four books
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase read side by side. Titles are paired by IDF-weighted overlap, and a pair whose strike numbers disagree is thrown out before it can be priced.
Cross-venue surface
8 levels / side
Sized against the real book
Microprice, depth imbalance and spread in bps come off the top eight levels. Size is then solved by walking those levels until the next contract stops paying.
Executable size
240 candles
The history the model is fit on
Each asset and timeframe keeps its own candles on disk. Per-minute drift and EWMA variance are estimated from them, and the same store is what replay is later checked against.
Local evidence
25 cities
Straight from what settles it
METAR and TAF from the airports these contracts settle on. NWS and Open-Meteo are blended three to one, and where the two models disagree the forecast is marked low confidence rather than averaged quietly.
Weather contracts
Built to say no
Engine room.
Most tools compete on how many alerts they can send you. eagL competes on how many bad trades it stops you from taking. Every candidate has to clear real depth, real fees and a two-leg replay before it reaches your screen.
Decision receipt
Cross-venue contractCandidateYES / NO pair
Illustrative
- Headline spread
- +4.20%
- Reachable depth
- 37 contracts
- Entry + settlement
- −5.08%
- Executable edge
- −0.88%
Reject
Apparent edge does not survive fees.eagL / local evidence14:32:18.004
Executable pricing
Priced against real depth, not the screen.
eagL walks the book level by level, charges the fee at your real fill price instead of the screen price, and grows the size until the next contract stops paying. Kalshi pays its own schedule rounded up to the cent, PredictIt its cut of profit at settlement, Coinbase 120 bps taker.
Depth · size · venue fee
Forecast models
Makes its own forecasts, then grades them.
eagL prices every crypto strike itself, from a drift and volatility fit to stored minute candles under geometric Brownian motion, the same machinery an options desk runs. Past two hours it drops drift entirely, because at that horizon drift is noise. When markets settle it grades every forecast with Brier score, log loss and a calibration curve, so you can see whether the model earns its keep.
GBM · Brier · calibration
Reachability replay
Proves both legs were actually fillable.
A cross-venue trade needs both sides to fill, so eagL replays its stored quotes thirty minutes forward from the moment of detection, aligning the two venues only where their samples land within sixty seconds. The pair counts as takeable only if it still cleared costs thirty seconds later. Quote history is top of book, so this proves the price held, not the size.
Two-leg evidence
Held-out validation
Validated on data it never trained on.
The split is chronological, never random. eagL tunes its parameters on the early window, touches the held-out window exactly once, then shows you both numbers and the drop between them. The sweep is capped, because past a few hundred combinations the winner is luck, not skill.
In-sample · out-of-sample · drop
Evidence gates
No statistics from thin samples.
Before eagL will publish a statistic it wants 100 detections, 500 quote frames, 50 paper fills, 100 settled outcomes and seven days of watching. Below any of those floors it throws the figure away rather than printing it with a footnote.
Minimum sample · minimum window
Refusals
Never guesses at liquidity.
A market with no order book gets priced from one assumed level and labeled as assumed. Play-money venues get dropped before matching. Live orders are limit only, and the risk gate checks the emergency stop before anything else.
Flagged · dropped · gated
Nothing hidden
The math.
Four formulas do most of the quantitative work in eagL. They are standard equipment on institutional desks and almost never appear in retail prediction-market tools, which mostly compare screen prices. We think they belong in the open, readable by people who never sat through stochastic calculus. Here is each one, and how to read it.
Pricing
Strike odds from geometric Brownian motion
Why you want it: this is how an options desk prices a binary. eagL fits μ and σ to stored minute candles and prints its own probability next to the market’s, so you see exactly where they disagree. Past two hours it sets μ to zero, because at that horizon trend is noise.
Read it: St is the price now, K is the strike, τ is the time left. μ is drift, how the price has been trending; σ is volatility, how hard it has been shaking. Φ is the bell curve, turning the whole thing into a probability. In words: how far is the price from the strike, measured in units of expected wobble, and what are the odds the wobble carries it across in time.
Volatility
Variance with a memory: EWMA
Why you want it: crypto changes gear mid-session. An all-day average is still calm an hour into a storm and still braced an hour into a lull. This estimate turns with the market, and every strike probability above inherits the correction.
Read it: the new volatility estimate is the old one faded by λ, plus the newest squared price move rt2. eagL runs a 20-period half-life, so a shock counts half as much 20 minutes later and is nearly forgotten within the hour.
Order book
The microprice
Why you want it: the midpoint treats a lopsided book as balanced. The microprice is a standard high-frequency estimate of where the price is about to be, and eagL computes it live over the top eight levels, beside depth imbalance, queue imbalance and spread in basis points.
Read it: weigh each side of the book by the size waiting on the other. When bids stack up, the microprice leans toward the ask, because that is the direction the next trade is being pushed.
Scorekeeping
The Brier score
Why you want it: a model that never gets graded is an opinion. eagL scores every resolved forecast with Brier, log loss and a ten-bin calibration curve, then shows you the numbers. The model has to earn its place on your screen.
Read it: pi is what the model forecast, oi is what actually happened, one or zero. Square the miss, average over every settled market. Zero is perfect, and always guessing 50% scores 0.25, so anything under that beats a shrug.
The rest of the machinery, depth walking, per-venue fee schedules, the two-leg replay and the chronological holdout, is written up in the methodology.
No surprises
Transparency log.
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- PredictIt
- Coinbase
- NWS
- Open-Meteo
- METAR
- TAF
- Ed25519
- macOS Keychain
- Apple Silicon
- Platform
- Requires an Apple Silicon Mac on macOS 11 or later. Compiled for that silicon alone and never ported to Windows, Linux or Intel.
- Delivery
- A versioned .dmg, the moment the payment clears.
- Activation
- An Ed25519-signed licence file your Mac checks by itself. No account, no phone-home.
- Venues
- Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Coinbase. Your accounts, your keys.
- Crypto model
- Geometric Brownian motion fit to stored minute candles: per-minute drift, EWMA variance on a twenty-period half-life, strike brackets read off the lognormal. Every interval is Brier scored once it resolves.
- Weather terminal
- METAR and TAF from the 25 US city airports these contracts settle on, with NWS and Open-Meteo blended three to one and disagreement between them setting the confidence band. It reads the settlement data. It does not price the contract.
- Microstructure
- Microprice, depth imbalance, queue imbalance, liquidity elasticity and spread in basis points, over the top eight levels a side.
- Credentials
- The macOS keychain, and nowhere else. They never cross the network.
- Execution
- Read-only and paper-first. Live placement ships off behind a kill switch. Live Polymarket orders, never.
- Licence
- $499 once, and the build is yours permanently. Every v1 update and improvement is included for the lifetime of v1. No subscription, no renewal, and no expiry on the licence itself. The same licence is your claim to 20% off the v2 Pro Edition at release: email its confirmation to eaglapp@proton.me.
- Sales
- All sales are final. Write to orders@eagl-app.com or eaglapp@proton.me — either reaches the same person — about broken downloads, missing activation files, installation on the supported build, and questions. A duplicate charge is corrected as a billing error.
Pay once, own it
$499
USD, paid one time. There is no second invoice.
What a pro terminal usually costs
- Subscription terminalsabout $1,800 a year
- Lifetime seats elsewhereabout $1,600 once
- eagL$499 once
One payment. Pro terminal. No subscription.
Two years against a subscription terminal is about $3,600. eagL keeps roughly $3,100 of that with you.
Perpetual licence
Bought once. Yours for good.
The version you buy is yours the day you buy it and every day after it. Nothing expires, nothing renews, and there is no server anywhere that can switch it off.
Analytics software. No profit promise. All sales are final; support is by email. Licence and sales terms
Apple Silicon required
Owned outright.
- ✓The whole macOS application
- ✓Owned, not rented
- ✓Lifetime v1 updates and improvements
- ✓Activates offline, no account
- ✓Keys stay in your keychain
- ✓Nothing renews, ever
- ✓20% off the v2 Pro Edition at release*
*Claim the v2 discount by emailing your licence confirmation to eaglapp@proton.me when v2 ships. v1 keeps working either way.
Buy eagL · $499One payment, one tapApple Pay, Google Pay, Link, cards, PayPal and Amazon Pay, wherever your device and country allow them. No installments, no subscription.
Stripe-securedImmediate deliveryYours permanently
Any problem with the order or the download, eaglapp@proton.me fixes it.
Ask first
Risk compass.
What it does, what it refuses to do, and what happens to your money. Read this before you spend $499, not after.
Which markets does it actually cover?
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase in one window. Crypto is the part with a model behind it: strikes are priced from a drift and volatility fit to stored minute candles, across 11 assets and 14 Kalshi series. Weather is a settlement-data terminal rather than a pricing engine, and it is deliberately the smaller claim: METAR and TAF from the 25 airports those contracts settle on, NWS and Open-Meteo blended behind them, every reading stamped with its age. Everything else on the board is still scanned and still charged depth and fees, it just has no bespoke model attached.
What is under the hood?
Geometric Brownian motion for crypto strikes and brackets, with drift and EWMA variance estimated off stored minute bars, and resolved outcomes scored by Brier, log loss and a ten-bin calibration curve. Microprice, depth imbalance, queue imbalance and liquidity elasticity across the top of book. A size solver that walks the ladder, with each venue's own maker-taker schedule charged on the fill VWAP. IDF-weighted title matching behind a numeric gate, so a $100k strike never pairs with a $150k one. Backtests held to a chronological 60/40 holdout, so you see how much they degrade on data they never touched. None of it sits behind a tier.
Will this make me money?
No. Anything that answers yes is selling you something. eagL is a decision tool. A correct scan usually ends with the edge dying at the fee line, or never being reachable at a size worth the trouble.
Can it trade without me?
Not unless you switch it on yourself. The build is read-only and paper-first, live placement sits behind a kill switch, and Polymarket execution does not exist here at all.
What does $499 actually buy?
The application outright, plus every v1 update and improvement for the lifetime of v1, plus 20% off the v2 Pro Edition whenever it ships, claimed by emailing your licence confirmation to eaglapp@proton.me. For scale: subscription terminals in this space run about $1,800 a year, and lifetime seats elsewhere ask around $1,600. Outright means what it says: there is no update window, no higher tier holding anything back, no seat to renew, and no server that has to agree you still own it.
Will it run on my machine?
Only on an Apple Silicon Mac running macOS 11 or later. eagL is built for that chip and left there deliberately: one target means the order book, the model and the interface are tuned against known silicon rather than the slowest machine that might run them. Windows, Linux and Intel Macs are not supported and are not planned. Better you read that now than after paying.
Where do my API keys end up?
Your macOS keychain. The sidecar talks to them over loopback. There is no eagL server anywhere holding a credential that could move your funds.
What happens the second I pay?
The download and your signed activation file arrive immediately. No queue, no email confirmation to wait on. The wallet button is Stripe's own, so Apple Pay appears when your device really has it and quietly does not when it does not.
Something went wrong with my order. Now what?
Email orders@eagl-app.com or eaglapp@proton.me from the address you paid with. All sales are final, but you are not left alone with a broken order: a failed download, a missing activation file, or trouble installing the supported build gets fixed, a duplicate charge gets corrected as a billing error, and a real person answers.
Quantitative insight, real algorithms
$499 once. Running on your Mac in minutes.